Orkney Weather

Headlines

Today:BRIGHT, DRY DAY AFTER EARLY FROST
Next 3 Days:MORE CLOUD AND WIND, SOME SHOWERS
10 Day Outlook: WINDY, MILDER FOR A TIME

Summary

A bright, frosty start with little wind followed by a dry day. Clear and frosty at first this evening, then cloudy with patchy rain edging down into Shetland as SW to W'ly winds freshen.
 
Tuesday starting cloudy, with showers perhaps turning wintry as winds veer NW'ly for a time. Drier and brighter later with lighter winds. A clear, frosty start to Wednesday, but with rain spreading from the west later as milder SW'ly winds strengthen. Thursday and Friday largely cloudy, with showers or longer periods of rain and strong SW to W'ly winds.
 
For the weekend and start of the following week, strong to gale SW'ly winds look set to bring milder conditions with outbreaks of rain. Late in the outlook period, as strong winds veer W'ly and it turns a little colder, there is the possibility of showers turning wintry.

GENERAL SITUATION AND SYNOPSIS 06:00.
As an anticyclone - centred over the Northern Isles - drifts southeast, a SW'ly airflow will develop as the high continues to migrate south over the UK, allowing weak fronts to approach Shetland from the northwest.
 
The airflow will veer NW'ly by early Tuesday, as a deep area of low pressure - moving into northern Scandinavia - drives a cold front south across the Northern Isles into Scotland. However, the cold Arctic airflow is likely to be short-lived, with a milder SW'ly following later on Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure swings east across Scotland.
 
With low pressure likely to remain in the Iceland region and an anticyclone slow-moving close to southern Britain until mid-month, the rather unsettled SW'ly airflow across Northern Scotland is likely to continue until after the weekend. Next week, there are suggestions that low pressure may then move east into Scandinavia, with a cooler W'ly airflow developing.

FORECAST FOR NEXT THREE DAYS
Confidence level: Weather type medium/high. Timing – medium.
Temperatures rising to around 4° Celsius today, falling to 2° or 3° Celsius on coasts this evening, but to around freezing inland.  Temperatures then rising a little overnight. Temperatures in the daily range 7° Celsius down to 4° Celsius for Tuesday and a little cooler on Wednesday.
 
MONDAY 5th: After a clear and frosty start, a fine, dry day with sunny periods. Light and variable winds freshening SW'ly during the afternoon and increasing F5 during the evening as cloud thickens, with outbreaks of rain or drizzle spreading from the west by midnight. After an earlier frost, there is the risk of patches of black-ice forming on untreated surfaces as rain falls on to still-frozen ground.
Sea state – Moderate or slight with a 1 to 2 metre SW'ly swell.
 
TUESDAY 6th: Generally cloudy with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, becoming brighter with showers during the afternoon as F5-6 SW to W'ly winds veer NW'ly. The showers could well be wintry in Shetland during the afternoon. However, by evening most places will be dry as winds ease. As skies clear, a frost is likely and icy patches may form on untreated surfaces overnight.
Sea state – Moderate or slight with a 1 to 2 metre SW'ly swell.
 
WEDNESDAY 7th: A clear, frosty start to the day with light winds. A sunny morning, but cloud thickening from the west during the afternoon, with outbreaks of rain by evening as SW'ly winds increase F5.
Sea state – Moderate with a 2 metre SW'ly swell.

10-DAY OUTLOOK
Confidence level: Weather type – medium at first, low later. Timing – medium then very low.
Temperatures in the daily range 8° or 9° Celsius down to 6° Celsius until late in the outlook period, when temperatures may possibly fall a little.
 
THURSDAY 8th - MONDAY 12th: Rather unsettled and frost-free, with outbreaks of rain or showers and strong to gale SW'ly winds.
 
TUESDAY 13th - THURSDAY 15th: Possibly turning a little cooler as strong to gale SW'ly winds veer W'ly. Showers, mostly of rain at first, perhaps turning wintry later.

Be aware that the weather over north-west Europe - and especially around the Northern Isles - is part of an ever-changing and dynamic system. Therefore regard the ‘10-Day Outlook' as a guide only - there are times when any outlook going beyond about 36 to 48 hours is likely to prove unreliable.
 
Always check the latest forecast from the UK Met Office before undertaking any weather-dependent activity.